Angus Reid poll puts UCP miles ahead of Notley’s NDP
March 25, 2019
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The provincial election campaign in Alberta begins with the New Democratic Party trailing the opposition United Conservative Party by a wide margin, according to new public opinion polling data analyzed by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute and donated by Angus Reid Global Public Affairs.
During the period of fielding, respondents were asked how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow. Their answer: the UCP capturing a majority of the decided and leaning vote (56 per cent), with the NDP receiving 31 per cent.
However, the parties find themselves in a statistical tie in Edmonton, where the NDP garners 45 per cent of vote intention and the UCP 44 per cent. The New Democrats also lead among younger Albertans (46 per cent versus 38 per cent for the UCP among 18-34-year-olds), while the United Conservatives lead in every other region and demographic.
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Underlying these trends is a deep dissatisfaction with the Notley government’s performance over the past four years, particularly on economic issues such as management of the oil and gas industry.
- Six-in-10 Albertans (60 per cent) are dissatisfied with the current provincial government overall, including 43 per cent who say they are “very dissatisfied”
- Slight majorities feel the Notley government has done a good job on issues related to health care (54 per cent), and education (52 per cent), while larger majorities say the government has done poorly on the economy (66 per cent say this) and managing natural resources (64 per cent)
- Notley’s government is seen to be doing worst on the issues Albertans rank as most important to them. Half (49 per cent) rank energy, oil and gas, and pipelines as a top issue facing the province, and another four-in-ten (41 per cent) choose “the economy.” By contrast, health care is a top issue for fewer than one-in-four Albertans (24 per cent)
(Angus Reid Institute/Angus Reid Global Public Affairs)