January 12, 2018
The price of oil is here to stay for another 10 years.
The survey, conducted by Reuters, found that some 1,000 energy professionals predict oil prices are expected to remain close to current levels, averaging around $60 to $70 per barrel through the end of the decade.
Forecast prices have changed very little since the last survey a year ago, and are only modestly higher than in the first survey conducted in 2016, when spot prices were much lower than they are today and near the bottom of the cycle.
Long-term price expectations have become anchored around $70 per barrel – with forecasts clustered in a range of $60-$70 for 2018 widening to $60-$80 by 2020.
The results are based on a questionnaire sent to over 7,000 energy market professionals. Responses were received from just over 1,000 between Jan. 9-11.
Brent prices in 2018 are expected to average $65 per barrel, which is only marginally higher than the $60-65 forecast in last year’s survey. Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65-70, up from about $65 in the 2017 survey.
By the end of the decade, prices are expected to average around $70 in 2020, basically unchanged since the surveys in 2017 and even 2016.
Forecasts for 2018 and even 2019 are tightly clustered, with only 5 per cent of respondents expecting prices to average less than $55 per barrel in either year.