PROCESSWEST Magazine Online

Fossil fuels will play an important role in decades to come

By Canada News Wire   

News editor pick

A new energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) finds that Canada’s fossil fuel consumption declines over the next 30 years but without an accelerated energy transition, fossil fuels will still make up more than 60 per cent of Canada’s fuel mix in 2050.

Canada’s Energy Future 2020: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 explores how new technologies and climate policy will impact Canadian energy consumption and production trends over the next 30 years. The outlook considers two scenarios with different rates of technological and government policy change: the Evolving Energy System Scenario and the Reference Energy System Scenario.

“With the increasing pace of change in Canadian and global energy markets and climate policy, the need for up-to-date analysis on energy trends is greater than ever. Canada’s Energy Future series provides Canadians with a key reference point for discussing our country’s energy future and identifies key drivers of change that will impact Canada’s energy transition,” says Gitane De Silva, CEO, Canada Energy Regulator.

Under the Evolving Scenario, Canada’s domestic fossil fuel consumption has already peaked and will be 35 per cent lower by 2050. At the same time, renewables and nuclear become a larger share of Canada’s energy mix with electricity playing a greater role in satisfying end use energy needs. Electricity will become increasingly competitive with fossil fuels in many parts of the energy system, including for passenger vehicles.

Moderate growth in crude oil and natural gas production continues until it peaks around 2040. Canada’s major crude oil pipeline projects currently under construction will be able to accommodate expected future production growth over the next two decades.


Achieving net-zero greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Canada within the next 30 years will require stronger policies and greater adoption of low-carbon technologies. Canadian and international efforts to reduce GHG emissions will be a critical factor in how energy systems evolve in the long term.

You can read the report here:  Canada’s Energy Future 2020 Report

Canada’s Energy Future 2020 marks an important inflection point, as Canada’s energy system is being shaped by COVID–19 and ongoing innovations in energy technology and climate policy. In our Evolving Scenario, we now project that Canada has passed its peak for fossil fuel consumption and total energy demand,” Darren Christie, chief economist, Canada Energy Regulator.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to significantly impact Canada’s energy system. Canada’s economic recovery is a significant unknown facing the energy sector for the near-term, and one of many uncertainties for the long term.

The CER produces neutral and fact-based energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada. Together with Ingenium, the CER has developed educational activities for students and educators to explore Canada’s energy ecosystem over the long term based on Canada’s projected energy demand.

This publicly available report looks at long-term Canadian energy supply and demand outlook covering energy commodities across all provinces and territories. The CER will continue to publish informative products that are beneficial to a diverse audience, and reflect Canada’s diversity of relevant energy issues in an engaging and transparent way.



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